Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach

On 26^th September IEA published the update version of its report Net Zero Emissions by 2050: a Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, updated version of a first roadmap released in 2021. The report sets out a global pathway to achieve the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 ̊C above pre-industrial levels.  Since the first version report was released, in two years significant changes to the energy landscape happened, such as the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the post-pandemic economic rebound.

After two years positive signals come from both solar PV installations and the sale of EV whose extraordinary growth are in line with the milestones set in the first edition of the Net Zero roadmap. Recent growth puts electric car sales on track to account for two-thirds of new car sales by 2030, a critical milestone in the NZE Scenario. In addition, the current announced manufacturing capacity expansions for solar PV and batteries would be sufficient to be on track by 2030 with a fully compatible NZE Scenario.

On the other hand, global CO₂ emissions from the energy sector reached a record high level in 2022 at 37 gigatons (Gt) and other parts of the energy sector are not on track with what would be needed to put the world on track to stabilise temperature at 1.5C.

To achieve the emissions reductions needed by 2030, the technologies and policies needed are proven and known: accelerate renewable installations, improve energy efficiency, reduce methane emission, and electrify final consumption. In particular, in the new Net Zero Emission by 2050 scenario, by the end of this decade:

• Renewable capacity triples reaching 11 TW.
• The annual rate of energy intensity improvement doubles, including through electrification.
• Methane emissions from the energy sector decrease by 75%, an action that is one of the least cost opportunities to limit global warming in the near term.

The expansion of transmission and distribution networks is also central to enable the full implementation of the NetZero roadmap, requiring an annual expansion of about 2 million km by 2030. Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage, hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels, and sustainable bioenergy are also needed in the longer term.

The deployment of the clean technologies is enabled by a boost in clean energy from $1.8 trillion USD in 2023, to $4.5 trillion USD in 2030. Most of the increase will be needed in emerging economies.

The roadmap for the net zero emissions by 2050 requires a significant emissions reduction by 2030, and differentiation and equity will be key. Advanced economies will need to reach net-zero earlier to leave space to emerging economies. At the same time reaching full access by 2030 in emerging countries is a key condition. Financial support, through multilateral development banks and others, will be critical to achieve the level of scale up in clean energy investments envisaged. Almost all countries need to bring forward their targeted net zero dates.

The report includes a scenario in case of delays in policy implementation and targets, the "Delayed Action Case," which illustrates how failing to increase ambition beyond the current Nationally Determined Contribution by 2030 would pose significant climate risks and rely at scale on carbon removal technologies, many of which are not proven at scale today.

In the current geopolitically fragmented world the difficulties to realise this scenario are multiple, but of paramount importance is the need for cooperation, in which governments put tensions aside and find ways to work together on what is the defining challenge of our time.