No analysis of energy markets can be done without a robust, reliable and comparable dataset relating to resources, production, consumption and prices of the various energy sources. Energy analysts, academics, but also the world of industry, environmentalists know this well. However, it is not always easy to find all this data, especially with regular frequency, global coverage, and free of charge. For this reason a publication such as the Statistical Review of World Energy is essential and every year it is awaited from all. We spoke about this highly respected data publication, its genesis, and its evolution, with Ian Jones, Head of Knowledge, Insight, and Research at the Energy Institute.
Working with energy analysis and forecasts requires a good sense of historical energy production and access to good quality data. How relevant is it to have access to homogeneous and transparent historical series of data?
In the world of energy efficiency and energy usage there is an old saying “if you are not measuring it, you cannot manage it”. Essentially, quantifying the value of investing in energy efficiency is impossible without historic energy usage data. The same can be said of the global energy transition - unless there is transparent sharing of accurate data by each nation across all forms of energy, then it becomes extremely difficult to measure progress towards achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions. It also means that key investment decisions are more likely to be based on opinion and guesswork rather than fundamental data and facts.
I have been analyzing energy markets around the world for over twenty years now and, for me, it is essential that all analysis and forecasts are grounded in a robust understanding of the past, particularly historic trends and the complex interplay between different energy commodities and technologies. In my experience, it is hard to gain consensus and traction if one person presents a view that is based on rigorous and transparent analysis whilst someone else’s view is based on hearsay and opinion. If all parties can present their analysis, including their underlying assumptions, input data and variables, explain the mechanics of how their analytical models and tools work etc., then it is far easier to understand why different viewpoints exist, reach agreement, and move forward quicker.
This is not always easy when data is either unavailable, its quality questionable, or where different nations apply different standards to how they measure and report energy production and consumption. In many instances they even report in different units. For instance, crude oil can be reported in tonnes, barrels per day, or energy content. Whilst international guidelines exist on reporting say, reserves of oil, gas, and coal, or calculating primary energy consumption, they are only guidelines with no requirement to adhere to a specific standard or method. Consequently, unpicking original source data to create a consistent global view can be challenging. My role as Head of Knowledge, Insight, and Research at the Energy Institute involves being responsible for the delivery of the EI Statistical Review of World Energy and, each year, these are precisely the sorts of issues that we have to contend with in creating a consistent, credible, and objective view of the global energy system.
In your daily activities, how do you work on historical data? How does the EI interact with stakeholders in order to have relevant data?
For context, in 2023, the Energy Institute assumed ownership of the Statistical Review of World Energy (previously produced by bp). Each year the report is the first and foremost comprehensive overview of the global energy system to be made publicly and freely available. Since 1952 it has expanded to cover all aspects of energy from primary energy resources, through to energy conversion and consumption. Published around June each year, it contains historic data from 1965 right up to the latest full year and spans over 200 countries worldwide. The final published report consists of close to 300,000 individual data items. Behind this sits a much larger dataset consisting of unpublished and archived items from previous reports that top 169 gigabytes of data storage.
Producing such a complex dataset requires significant resources and the EI works closely with its partners at the Kearny Energy Transition Institute, KPMG, and academics at the Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy (CEERP) at Heriot Watt University. It directly involves around thirty analysts, academics, and researchers spread across the partner organisations and takes around six months to complete. Each year, the process starts in January with correspondence to over one hundred government agencies and key statistical bodies requesting the latest country level energy data (together with any prior year’s updates). This data is then supplemented with open-source information researched on the internet, official publications, and paid-for content from data providers keen to support the Statistical Review. Activity intensifies around April time when the flows of data rapidly increase and the painstaking processes of updating, converting, unpicking all the inconsistencies, validating, and cross checking everything really begins. The final report is accessed by tens of thousands of users from over 200 countries worldwide.
The energy sector is in a continuous evolution. As we wait for 2024 data what can you say about this evolution?
We are constantly seeking new and innovative ways to uncover new and otherwise hard-to-source energy data. In some instances, this is in response to geopolitical events such as the conflict in Ukraine that has placed pressure on the supply and transparency of some data. Here, the team has had to work extremely hard to source alternate, equally credible data for several items, most notably some trade flows of crude oil, oil products, and natural gas (both pipeline and liquified natural gas). In other instances, evolving the Statistical Review requires identifying new data sources. For instance, 2024 saw the addition of new commodity price items for carbon, hydrogen, ammonia, copper, and lithium-based cells, as well as new data tables for installed capacities of carbon capture, usage and storage, grid-scale battery storage, and blue and green hydrogen production. In addition, the number of tables relating to the production and reserves of key minerals was doubled.
In an effort to keep apace of the energy transition, the EI also launched its Country Transition Tracker (a companion to the Statistical Review). In this way, we hope that users have all the foundations that they need to deliver evidence-based analysis and forecasts on how they think the energy system will evolve and at what pace.
